‘Barbie,’ ‘Oppenheimer’ doubleheader ‘pinnacle of the year’ as box office lags 2019

"Barbenheimer" weekend is finally here.

Warner Bros.' "Barbie" (WBD) and Universal's "Oppenheimer" (CMCSA) are set to be the highlight of the year for movie theaters (and consumers) as the box office continues to lag pre-pandemic levels.

Thursday's preview sales came in strong, with "Barbie" securing $22.3 million domestically, the largest haul of the summer so far. "Oppenheimer" meanwhile nabbed $10.5 million.

The strong previews for "Barbie" suggest the film will come in at the high end of projections, as Box Office Pro anticipates a three-day weekend total between $140 million and $175 million — far outpacing Warner Bros.' modest $70 million estimate.

"It feels like the pinnacle of the year so far — especially after a summer where we've seen a lot of franchise sequels miss expectations by varying degrees," Box Office Pro chief analyst Shawn Robbins told Yahoo Finance, stressing the pop culture "zeitgeist" both films have managed to create — particularly with "Barbie," which has relied on a heavy marketing push to drum up anticipation.

Films like Disney's "Elemental" and Warner Bros.' "The Flash" struggled to secure ticket sales earlier this summer, while the hyped-up, live-action "Little Mermaid" fell short of expectations.

"We're in a time now where people are a little bit more selective with what they're choosing to spend their money on," Robbins said.

Current year-to-date box office levels, although up 12% compared to last year, are still down roughly 20% versus 2019, according to Comscore data. That could change heading into the back half of the year.

While there have been some misses this summer, "Barbenheimer" weekend, plus an August loaded with six new wide releases, will likely give the box office a late summer bump, said Paul Dergarabedian, senior media analyst at Comscore.

Robbins added the weekend will likely surpass pre-pandemic levels, explaining, "[This weekend] has the potential to generate so much revenue for more than one movie. That's really important because, post-pandemic, there haven't been many, if any, real examples of two high-profile movies of this caliber opening on the same weekend."

The simultaneous debut likely won't cannibalize either film given their very different audiences, experts say.

AMC (AMC) revealed it's sold 40,000 tickets of the double feature to its movie club members.

"In a way, I think they're helping each other," Robbins said.

A strong weekend will be especially important as the double strike in Hollywood casts a shadow on the future of the box office.

SAG-AFTRA — the union that represents approximately 160,000 actors, announcers, recording artists, and other media professionals around the world — joined writers on the picket lines last week after the guild failed to negotiate a deal with the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers (AMPTP), which bargains on behalf of studios including Disney (DIS), Netflix (NFLX), Amazon (AMZN), Apple (AAPL), and NBCUniversal.

In a report released earlier this week, Moody's predicted "a relatively long strike" which would hit movie theater companies such as AMC and Cineworld (CINE.L) first, followed by diversified media companies with both streaming and linear television businesses.

"If there is a protracted strike, cinema operators are most at risk with their nearly complete dependency on new product," Moody's said. "Theatrical exhibitors are already strained from damage caused by the COVID pandemic such as lighter release schedules that followed and shortened distribution windowing. They also have mostly weaker balance sheets and credit ratings."

Disruptions in the industry are already being felt, with Variety reporting that Warner Bros. is "strongly considering" pushing the highly anticipated "Dune" sequel to next year from its current Nov. 3 debut, citing the two strikes.

The studio is also reportedly weighing new dates for the movie musical "The Color Purple," along with DC Studios' "Aquaman and The Lost Kingdom."

Although the strike timeline is unknown, Warner Bros. said there are no current plans to change any release plans for any WB or DC film.

Alexandra Canal is a Senior Reporter at Yahoo Finance. Follow her on Twitter @allie_canal, LinkedIn, and email her at [email protected].

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